Virginia Politics Insider: The candidates' crucibles (2024)

COMPILED BY ANDREW CAIN

July 1, 2024

Virginia Politics Insider: The candidates' crucibles (1)

Four days after President Joe Biden's meandering and raspy performance in the first presidential debate there is no indication that the president plans to leave the contest.

Amid handwringing by national Democrats, polling and fundraising will be key indicators of whether the president is likely to stay the course. Convention delegates are pledged to Biden on the first ballot, so the decision will be up to the president.

A post-debate CBS News/YouGov poll found that 72% of respondents said Biden does not have the mental or cognitive health to serve as president and 72% said he should not be running for president. Among registered Democrats 46% said the president should not be running again.

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During a fundraiser Saturday in East Hampton, N.Y., Biden said: "I understand the concern about the debate. I get it. I didn’t have a great night." But he said his campaign had raised $27 million since the debate and he did not sound like he is ready to step aside.

"I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job," Biden said.

Former President Donald Trump is trying to capitalize off the debate. He said in a fundraising appeal Sunday night: "We have Joe Biden on the ropes."

While all eyes have been on Biden in recent days, two upcoming events are crucial for Trump'sfortunes.

On Monday the U.S. Supreme Court rules on Trump's assertion that he is immune from criminal prosecution. On July 11, a New York judge sentences Trump on his 34 felony convictions stemming from hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels.

Buckle up.

WHAT'S NEXT?

Trump immunity? The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule Monday on whether former President Donald Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution.

Assembly, again: The state Senate returns again Monday to deal with education benefits for the families of veterans who were killed or severely disabled on duty.

New laws: Hundreds of new laws and a new two-year state budget take effect on Monday.

The son also rises: James Wood, the No. 3 prospect in Major League baseball and the son for former University of Richmond basketball Hall of Famer Kenny Wood, debuts Monday for the Washington Nationals.

McGuire: On Tuesday the state Board of Elections certifies the June 18 primary results. Rep. Bob Good, R-5th, who trails state Sen. John McGuire, would then have 10 days to call for a recount.

Virginia Politics Insider: The candidates' crucibles (2)

WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT

Richmond School Board:Anna Bryson reports that amid a power play by other board members, Stephanie Rizzi will step down as school board chair. READ MORE

Budget:Michael Martz reports that the state budget that takes effect Monday includes raises for state employees and teachers. READ MORE

Trump in Chesapeake: Dave Ress reports that former President Donald Trump rallied supporters in Chesapeake and pledged to carry Virginia, which he lost in 2016 and 2020. READ MORE

Vets' benefits: Michael Martz and Eric Kolenich report that on Friday the House of Delegates quickly voted to repeal changes in an education program for families of veterans who were killed or severely disabled. The Senate now takes up its own proposal. READ MORE

Biden's debate: Virginia political analysts called President Joe Biden's performance in the first debate "awful" and "catastrophic." READ MORE

Schapiro: Politics columnist Jeff Schapiro writes that the debate was a reminder of why TV is called an "idiot box." READ MORE

Virginia Politics Insider: The candidates' crucibles (3)

Who's in the picture?

In Virginia politics the pictures from former President Donald Trump's rally Friday in Chesapeake might be worth as much as the words.

There were plenty of words - following warm-ups by former Govs. George Allen and Bob McDonnell,U.S. Senate nominee Hung Cao and Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Trump held forth for more than 80 minutes.

Late in the rally Trump called Youngkin back to the stage and there it was, the image of Youngkin shaking hands with Trump.

This is the image that Youngkin assiduously avoided during his 2021 campaign for governor and earlier this year, when he skipped Trump's Richmond rally ahead of Super Tuesday.

The governor's decision to embrace Trump - literally and figuratively - could mean that Youngkin expects Trump to win and wants to be in his good graces whenever Youngkin mounts his next bid for office. It also could mean that Youngkin is not interested in running against Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., in 2026.

Youngkin knows that during Trump's presidency Virginia Democrats held all three statewide offices and made gains in the state's congressional delegation and the state legislature. Whatever the post-debate drama of the moment, you can bet that if Youngkin runs for Senate, Warner will blanket Northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs with images of the Trump and Youngkin handshake.

During Friday's rally Trump also called to the stage and shook hands with Attorney General Jason Miyares, a potential GOP candidate for governor in 2025. Unmentioned and nowhere to be seen was Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, another potential GOP candidate for governor. In late 2022 Earle-Sears publicly urged Republicans to move on from Trump after the GOP failed to make sweeping gains in the midterm congressional elections.

If Trump is elected in November, Miyares could use the former president's benediction in a potential GOP nomination contest with Earle-Sears. Expect Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-7th, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor, to remind suburbanites of the Trump-Miyares handshake in the general election if he becomes the GOP nominee.

Trump also gave a shout out to state Sen. John McGuire, R-Goochland, who received Trump's endorsem*nt in the 5th District GOP primary. McGuire leads Rep. Bob Good, R-5th, by 374 votes out of 62,792 cast.

With the state certifying the primary results on Tuesday, a recount could tell us whether Good will be out of the picture.

Virginia Politics Insider: The candidates' crucibles (4)

IN OTHER NEWS

• Anna Bryson reports that Stella Dikos, namesake of Richmond's Stella's restaurants and markets, died at age 82.

• Eric Kolenich reports that Gov. Glenn Youngkin appointed former Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico, to the Virginia Commonwealth University Board of Visitors. READ MORE.

• Michael Martz reports that as his chief of staff departs, Youngkin is trying to reset his relationship with the General Assembly READ MORE

• Samuel B. Parker reports that Richmond spokesperson Petula Burks’ city-issued purchasing card has been suspended for nearly a year after she failed to clear a backlog of charges. READ MORE

Dave Ress reports that Youngkin is seeking recommendations on improving disparities in maternal health. READ MORE

PHOTO OF THE WEEK

Virginia Politics Insider: The candidates' crucibles (5)

MONDAY TRIVIA

From 1840 to 1960, seven presidents elected at 20-year intervals died in office: William Henry Harrison, Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley, Warren Harding, Franklin Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy. Which Virginia-born president died in office but was not part of the "20-year" curse?

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"We win Virginia, the race is over."

- former President Donald Trump Friday in Chesapeake

TRIVIA ANSWER

President Zachary Taylor took office in March 1849 and died of a stomach ailment in July 1850.

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Virginia Politics Insider: The candidates' crucibles (2024)
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